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Welcome to this week’s publish from the Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen examine. The examine tracks the technical situation of sixteen of the biggest market capitalization cryptocurrencies. I’ve collected the historic quantitative goal technical rank knowledge and secondary technical indicators, together with the Candy Sixteen whole technical rank and the weekly common technical rank, till October 2021. Every week, the research can even spotlight the technical adjustments of the 16 cryptocurrencies that I observe. as particular person highlights on notable actions in sure cryptocurrencies and indices.
A number of of my readers requested me to incorporate a technical “Recap” which, beginning subsequent week, will likely be an everyday characteristic in Crypto Candy Sixteen’s weekly research. Moreover, this week’s Research is considerably abbreviated as a result of writer’s journey commitments.
The next Excel spreadsheet signifies the weekly change within the goal Technical Ranking (“TR”) of every particular person Cryptocurrency. The technical rating or scoring system is a totally quantitative method that makes use of a number of technical issues together with, however not restricted to, development, momentum, accumulation/distribution measurements, and relative power. If the technical situation of a person Cryptocurrency improves, the Technical Ranking (“TR”) will increase and, conversely, if the technical situation continues to deteriorate, the TR falls. The TR of every particular person cryptocurrency can vary from 0 to 50. The spreadsheet beneath additionally acts as a “warmth map” in that cryptocurrencies with a TR within the vary of 1 to fifteen are highlighted in purple, so 15.5 to 34.5 are marked in blue. and TRs within the vary of 35 to 50 are in inexperienced. The primary takeaway from this spreadsheet must be the development of particular person TRs, whether or not enchancment or continued deterioration, in addition to a change in course. A sustained development change in particular person TRs must happen for it to be viable. Secondly, a really low ranking could point out an oversold situation and conversely, a really excessive and steady quantity could also be seen as an overbought situation however as we all know, oversold situations could proceed apace and values Overbought banks which have proven extraordinary momentum can simply turn into extra overbought. . Third, weekly TRs are a useful relative indicator of power/weak point with one another, additionally when the Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating (“SSTTR”), which has a spread of 0 to 800, is close to the top of its vary and a person cryptocurrency has a TR that is still excessive, indicating relative power. Conversely, if the SSTTR is close to the highest of its current vary and a person cryptocurrency has a TR that is still caught at low ranges, it speaks of relative weak point. Lastly, I view goal technical rankings as a place to begin in my evaluation and should not the entire “finish recreation.”
*Rankings are calculated by means of the week ending Friday, October 13.
The SSTTR fell -44.53% to 175 from the earlier studying of 315.5 for the week ending October 6, which had fallen barely from the final week of September to 339.5. As will likely be seen within the spreadsheet beneath, the losses within the particular person technical classifications (“TR”) have been large, taking the SSTTR to a degree not seen since September 1.
Week after week, all Candy Sixteen cryptocurrencies recorded losses of their particular person TRs. The imply TR loss was -8.78. Main the sector on the draw back was Bitcoin (BTC), which misplaced -18 handles to 13 from 31, adopted by Avalance (AVAX), which fell -16.5 to six from 22.5. Solely one of many Candy Sixteen completed the week within the “inexperienced zone” (TR between 35 and 50). That was Tron (TRX), whose TR alone fell from -1 to 39 from 40. Two have been within the “blue zone” (TR between 15.5 and 34.5) and 13 ended the week within the “purple zone” (TR between 1 and 15). The earlier week ending October 6, there have been three cryptocurrencies within the “inexperienced zone” (which included TRX), six within the “blue zone,” and 7 within the “purple zone.” The optimistic relative power of TRX towards the CCi30 index (inexperienced arrow within the decrease panel), since its value low in August, may be seen within the chart printed beneath.
*Friday, October 6 to Friday, October 13
AVAX and Matic Community (MATIC) led the pack decrease with a seven-day absolute lack of -14.08% and -8.67% respectively and, in doing so, helped drive Candy’s seven-day common absolute loss Sixteen at -6.48%. Day by day charts for each are posted beneath; Word the lack of short-term value momentum, as evidenced by the MACD. TRX’s -1.96% loss virtually appears minimal in comparison with the losses within the different Candy Sixteen cryptocurrencies.
There are eight technical situation components (“TCF”) that decide particular person TR scores (0-50). Every of those 8 asks goal technical questions (see spreadsheet posted above). If a technical query is optimistic, a further level is added to the person TR. Quite the opposite, if the technical query is detrimental, it receives a “0”. Some TCFs carry extra weight than others, such because the weekly development issue and the weekly momentum issue, when compiling every particular person TR of every of the 16 cryptocurrencies. Due to this fact, the Excel sheet above calculates the weekly studying for every issue as a share of the doable whole. For instance, there are 7 issues (or questions) within the Day by day Momentum Technical Situation Issue (“DMTCF”) of the 16 cryptocurrency ETFs (or 7 X 16) for a doable vary of 0 to 112 if all 16 had met the DMTCF standards. the studying could be 112 or 100%. A DMTCF studying of 85% or greater suggests {that a} short-term overbought situation is growing and a studying of 15% or much less suggests a short-term oversold situation.
On the finish of final week, the DMTCF fell to 11.61% or 13 out of 112 factors. This week’s oversold studying was a drop from the overbought studying of 93.75% or 105 three weeks in the past.
As a affirmation device, if all eight TCFs enhance week over week, extra of the 16 cryptocurrencies are bettering internally from a technical standpoint, confirming a broader market transfer up (consider an advance/decline calculation) . Quite the opposite, if extra TCF falls week after week, extra “Cryptos” are technically deteriorating, confirming the broader downward motion out there. Final week, all eight TCFs fell, including additional proof of widespread technical weak point within the cryptocurrency market.
The Candy Sixteen Whole Technical Rating Indicator (“SSTTR”) is a complete of all 16 cryptocurrency rankings and may be thought of as a affirmation/divergence indicator in addition to an overbought/oversold indicator. As a affirmation/divergence device: If the broader market, as measured by the CCi30 index, continues to recuperate with no proportional transfer or a transfer greater within the SSTTR, the continuation of the CCi30 index rally turns into more and more threatened. Conversely, if the CCi30 index continues to file decrease lows and there’s little change or enchancment within the SSTTR, a optimistic divergence is recorded. That is, in some methods, like a standard A/D line. As an overbought/oversold indicator: the nearer the SSTTR will get to the 800 degree (all 16 cryptocurrencies have a TR of fifty), “issues cannot get a lot better technically” and an rising variety of particular person cryptocurrencies have turn into “stretched”, there are Extra of an opportunity of rollback on the CCi30. Then again, the nearer to an excessive low “issues cannot technically get a lot worse” and an rising variety of Crypto are “technically gone” and an oversold rally or measurable low is nearer to occurring. The 13-week exponential shifting common in purple smooths out unstable SSTTR readings and is analytically a greater development indicator.
*The CCi30 index is a registered trademark and was created and maintained by an impartial staff of mathematicians, quants and fund managers led by Igor Rivin. It’s a rules-based index designed to objectively measure the general development, each day and long-term motion of the blockchain sector. It does this by indexing the 30 largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, excluding stablecoins (extra particulars may be discovered at CCi30.com).
The CCi30 index fell -4.93% final week after being capped by the midline (purple dashed line) of the Modified Schiff Fork (purple P1 to P3) for the eighth consecutive week. The SSTTR additionally fell and is “approaching” what the oscillator lows have been throughout what I proceed to imagine is a base constructing course of. The SSTTR 13-week exponential shifting common continues to say no. The MACD of the Crypto Index continues beneath its sign line, just under impartial territory, giving little indication of directional bias. Until the supplied assist is breached first by value assist at 6,580 after which by the decrease parallel of the Gallows, I’ll follow my technical thesis that value motion continues to be base constructing.
The Candy Sixteen Common Weekly Technical Rank (“ASSTR”) is the common technical rank of the sixteen cryptocurrencies I observe on this weblog. Just like the SSTTR, it’s a affirmation/divergence or overbought/oversold indicator.
The marginally shorter weekly cloud chart provides few further technical clues as to the place the index will head within the coming weeks. What I can say is that with a Cloud reversal approaching mid-November, there will likely be an opportunity that Cloud resistance will dissipate, lowering one of many obstacles to restoration, however the index should first “deal” with the resistance on the Median Line. (purple dotted line) from Pitchfork that has continued to high the rallies). Late final week, ASSTR was approaching a degree that has brought about short-term value reversals.
Graphics are courtesy of optuma whose charting software program permits anybody to visualise any knowledge, together with my goal technical rankings. Cryptocurrency value knowledge is courtesy of Kraken.
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https://www.optuma.com/movies/optuma-webinar-2-rrgs/
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