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Visitor: Felix Zulauf is the founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, a boutique analysis and consulting agency.
Recorded: 12/14/2023 | Run-Time: 49:41 
Abstract: In at the moment’s episode, Felix shares his view of the worldwide funding panorama from Asia to Europe to the US. He shares why the tailwinds of decrease inflation might reverse and lead inflation to rise above 10%. He additionally touches on the state of gold, the Greenback and different currencies, and why he’s centered on the upcoming election in Taiwan.
Feedback or solutions? Fascinated by sponsoring an episode? E-mail us Suggestions@TheMebFaberShow.com
Hyperlinks from the Episode:
- 1:23 – Welcome Felix to the present
- 2:14 – What the world seems to be like as 2023 winds down
- 3:30 – Why China shouldn’t be involved in excessive development
- 11:45 – How the Taiwanese election would possibly have an effect on markets
- 15:15 – Worth disconnect between the US & the remainder of the world
- 16:38 – Historic parallels to the market setting at the moment
- 17:38 – Ideas on mounted revenue and inflation
- 22:17 – Gold
- 25:20 – The US greenback and different currencies
- 31:21 – What is going to greatest shock in 2024?
- 33:36 – One thing Felix believes that of most his friends don’t
- 38:01 – Felix’s most memorable funding
- Study extra about Felix : FelixZulauf.com
Transcript:
Welcome Message:
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Disclaimer:
Meb Faber is the co-founder and chief funding officer at Cambria Funding Administration. On account of trade laws, he won’t focus on any of Cambria’s funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast individuals are solely their very own opinions and don’t replicate the opinion of Cambria Funding Administration or its associates. For extra data, go to cambriainvestments.com.
Meb:
Whats up, my mates. We acquired an episode at the moment. I’ve been wanting ahead to this dialog for a protracted, very long time. Excited to share our chat with well-known macro professional Felix Zulauf, founding father of Zulauf Consulting. He was beforehand the worldwide strategist for UBS and later ran his personal asset administration agency.
In at the moment’s episode, Felix shares his view of the worldwide funding panorama from Asia to Europe to the US. He shares why the tailwinds of decrease inflation might reverse and lead inflation to rise above 10%. He additionally touches on the state of gold, the greenback and different currencies and why he’s centered on the upcoming election in Taiwan. Please take pleasure in this episode with Felix Zulauf. Felix, welcome to indicate.
Felix:
My pleasure. Thanks for having me, Meb.
Meb:
I’m so excited to have you ever. I’ve been wanting to speak to you for a very long time. The place do we discover you this morning? This night?
Felix:
Yeah, it’s early night in Switzerland, simply again from my place in Florida. Change to colder climate.
Meb:
Nicely, it’s all the time been a problem for me to regulate to California through the holidays, seeing a bunch of lights and timber out on a pier within the ocean the place it’s 70 levels versus Colorado the place we’d nonetheless be going to highschool in a foot of snow. I’m not complaining as a result of it may be fairly good going browsing in December and January, however Switzerland seems like a magical time this time of 12 months.
Felix:
I’m undecided it’s. We now have no snow proper now down within the cities, so it might be good to have snow over Christmas time.
Meb:
So we’re going to bounce all around the globe this chat. Why don’t we get began together with your perch from over there in Switzerland, views of the worldwide economic system, what’s happening? There’s been some macro forces, lots of people wringing their fingers this 12 months about potential recessions. And I believe everybody retains ready for one to return and right here within the US and it simply looks as if it’s all the time within the horizon. What’s the world appear like to you at the moment as we wind down 2023?
Felix:
We now have three areas in very totally different standing. We now have China that’s kind of weakish. It has misplaced its momentum. It has to digest the overhang from the actual property increase and the credit score increase and that may take at the very least 10 years if not longer. So China won’t be a locomotive to the world economic system for a lot of, a few years.
China is attempting to handle by means of this and the restructure step-by-step, present stimulus to help however not stimulus to development. It’s not on the Chinese language agenda to create excessive development. Respectable development, three, 4 % is sweet sufficient for them and in actuality, three or 4 % what they publish might be one to 2 %, no more than that.
Meb:
And are you choosing that up from type of what they’ve been saying is the perception moderately from simply indicators you’re taking a look at? What makes you come to kind of that perception as you look to the far East?
Felix:
I’ve mentioned that for a few years. Once I noticed the overhang from building increase, actual property increase, the credit score increase, as soon as that’s over, the overhang is great. And give it some thought, the US has what? 140 million items of dwelling in the entire us. The overhang of empty houses in China is about 100 million. In order that’s quite a bit to digest and sadly they don’t have a inhabitants that’s rising.
It’s really shrinking barely, however it can speed up the shrinking over time. So there isn’t a method they will develop out of the issue. That’s not possible. Due to this fact, they must restructure, they must take the write-offs and finally they must recapitalize the native governments, that are the massive gamers in that and so they must recapitalize the banking trade and so they must monetize a variety of the debt.
However they are going to solely accomplish that as soon as the western world is on the level to take action additionally, as a result of we’ve got our issues, structural issues as properly. And I believe that may solely come within the second half of the 20s. However we are going to run into a serious disaster in a couple of years’ time, fiscal disaster, et cetera, after which we are going to attempt to stimulate out of it. And as soon as the western world stimulates, the Chinese language will accomplish that.
Just lately, in opposition to the expectation of a lot of the consultants China tighten financial coverage, which the western world didn’t perceive, however they did so to guard their forex. They didn’t need their forex to go down and break down badly. They wish to preserve the whole lot in stability till 2024 after we most likely have a recession within the US and central financial institution will start to chop charges and the pump liquidity into the system. Then they will do it additionally, however in any other case it might harm them.
Then we’ve got Europe. Europe is the massive loser on this complete sport of rivalry and new association of world order. Europe is weak, it has no military to talk of that may defend its personal territory and so they don’t have any saying on the planet actually. Economically they’ve been sturdy, it’s an enormous market, however all of them rely on China for exports and US for exports and US on protection and they’ll come out very weak.
The economic system is struggling significantly in these areas the place they attempt to go inexperienced and the off gas led vitality and nuclear vitality like Germany that’s very weak. They’re destroying the German economic system really. Different components are doing a bit bit higher. Spain is doing very properly. Italy has now outperformed Germany I believe for nearly 4 years.
So internet I might say Europe is kind of stagnating borderline to recession. And if the US goes into recession, we are going to most likely additionally go into recession and the recession will deepen considerably. The US is the odd man. It has been the strongest economic system, supplied some huge cash to the folks to spend. And that fiscal help helped after all. And I believe the tightening during the last 12 months and a half or so will finally be felt throughout 2024.
However the consensus of a gentle touchdown may be very pronounced. And what I’ve realized in my profession is when you have got such a pronounced consensus and all of the consultants and forecasts agree, one thing else goes to occur. So I believe the economic system will first be a bit bit stronger than anticipated after which weaker than anticipated and fall into recession. And that ought to harm the company earnings.
Let’s say it’s going to be a light recession as a result of we wouldn’t have an enormous stock overhang or something of that kind. That might imply that company income let’s say go down 10%. It may go down extra however let’s say gentle 10%. Normally in a recession they go down 25%. And you’re taking a backside, a bear market backside, a a number of of 16, you arrive at about 3,500.
That’s not what folks take into consideration after they enter the market as of late. And really the market has some technical points which can be very harmful. And I’m referring to the great focus of shares. Focus of shares that carry out very properly and are the beneficiaries of weak inflows of cash on the best way up can pull the market index up dramatically as performed this 12 months.
The 493 shares didn’t in addition to the Magnificent Seven, however take into account that if you spend money on a passive method and also you index or if you spend money on an lively method and also you do closet indexing as most guys are doing, then you find yourself with most likely 80% of the fairness invested worldwide is benchmarked. And that signifies that in case you spend money on a world index, nearly two thirds of the cash flows into the US market and out of that cash one third flows into seven shares.
So you have got a focus like by no means earlier than on the planet. And that was very good on the best way up. I believe it can exaggerate the transfer on the best way down. So when a correction comes, when managers are hit with redemptions, after they have to boost money, et cetera, they must promote what they personal an excessive amount of of and people are the heavyweights of the Magnificent Seven as a result of in case you wished to outperform, you needed to chubby these Magnificent Seven, in any other case you might be performed.
And I just lately learn a report that mentioned the big hedge funds within the US have 70% of their equities in 10 positions. I’m undecided whether or not that’s true or not, however I may think about it’s. And if that’s true and the marketplace for no matter cause turns down, you then get the transfer down that will get exaggerated and has nothing to do with the actual economic system. Folks don’t perceive that because the transfer up right here doesn’t have a lot to do with the actual economic system.
Meb:
Man, Felix, you touched on quite a bit there, so we’re going to dive into a couple of issues. The primary, I used to be laughing as you had been speaking about Italy as a result of considered one of my favourite issues to do after I go on TV is I ask my son, he’s six. I say, “You bought to provide me a phrase to work into the interview as a problem and so that you just’ll watch it and make it enjoyable for me, as a result of in any other case I get bored speaking about a few of the stuff that’s the every day subject.”
And I assumed he lastly defeated me this time as a result of in years previous it was phrases like “Ninja” or “Blah blah blah” or a meme and this time it was “Mama Mia.” And I’m like, “There’s no method on reside TV I can work in Mama Mia.” However Italian shares had been having an excellent 12 months and so I assumed I couldn’t do it however I used to be capable of squeeze it in. I don’t suppose anybody perceive what I used to be speaking about, however I had an viewers of 1 so I lastly made it.
Okay, so there’s a handful of issues that I might like to get into. We’re going to get again to the Magnificent Seven in a minute, however one of many issues I’ve seen you write about as we’re speaking about type of geopolitics, everyone seems to be so centered within the macro world all the time on the massive occasions, what’s happening in Ukraine, what’s happening in Israel, elections, we acquired one arising within the US subsequent 12 months, Argentina. However the one which I’ve seen you write quite a bit about is the significance of the Taiwanese election. Perhaps discuss a bit bit about how which may be an vital position or an vital level within the subsequent few years so far as geopolitics and macro and markets.
Felix:
The Taiwanese are additionally Chinese language initially. And I believe China and Taiwan over the long run will unite and get collectively. It’s pure. In fact the US is utilizing Taiwan as a provocation to China as they used Ukraine as a provocation to Russia. And I believe if the US would sit quiet relating to Taiwan, there wouldn’t be an issue and we wouldn’t speak about it and Xi wouldn’t have made the error of claiming we wish to combine Taiwan throughout the subsequent 5 years.
That was an enormous mistake. It mustn’t have put a time restrict on that. In Taiwan you have got individuals who favor getting nearer with China and you’ve got others which can be in opposition to it. And on January thirteenth there’s the subsequent election and you’ve got two opposition events that collectively within the polls have 53% which can be in favor of getting nearer with China. Not integrating fully however getting nearer with China.
Sadly the 2 couldn’t resolve to make use of only one candidate. So there are two candidates and actually to make it work for them, one candidate near election time has to endorse the opposite one to make it occur after which they might win the elections. I hoped that Xi or China would lean on these two events to some extent to make it occur. We now have to attend for the end result, however you even have to know that about 10% of the Taiwanese workforce already lively in China.
They work there and the consultants and the engineers from semiconductor firms, Taiwanese semiconductors, they’re additionally working in China. And although I believe the change of know-how goes each methods and so they commerce and they’re pleasant, after all the Chinese language are sometimes aggressive with their army maneuvers et cetera. However I don’t see a conflict arising there.
I believe that might be dangerous. I believe the Taiwanese working in China are telling their folks again dwelling they’re handled very properly, they make an excellent residing, the whole lot is ok. And over time, if no one would provoke, over time the 2 would get nearer collectively. The Taiwanese by the best way, at any time when they made a brand new innovation or new chip or so that they all the time gave China a 3 to 4 months lead over others to maintain them comfortable.
Meb:
Nicely, it’s fascinating, we had been speaking about this the opposite day with any person the place everyone seems to be so excited and scorching bothered about a variety of the American massive tech. And significantly if you’re speaking about investments in shares, American semiconductor firms.
And in case you look in Taiwan and elsewhere, South Korea particularly, there occurs to be a variety of semiconductor firms, additionally ones that commerce at a a lot bigger valuation low cost than a few of the ones in the US do, together with a couple of which have been two, three baggers this 12 months alone.
It’s all the time fascinating to see the worth disconnect, which we’ve been speaking about for fairly a very long time, US versus the remainder of the world. I don’t know if there’ll ever be a catalyst for this to shut, however it looks as if a complete investing profession at this level.
Felix:
No, I believe the catalyst will probably be when the Magnificent Seven decline, that would be the set off. After which you’ll have perhaps one other yet another cycle the place the US outperforms and that must be it.
As a result of then the world order will get rearranged and the US dominance is in decline. And I believe capital might then go to different locations as soon as the whole lot is settled out and we’ve got a brand new world order that appears to be secure. However we undergo this order and the volatility in geopolitics for an additional 5 to eight years or so.
Meb:
I’m wondering is there a historic parallel or analog? In my head I’m pondering of phrases like NIFTY 50. You return and browse a few of these books about a few of the shares you simply needed to personal. You couldn’t not personal a few of these firms in many years previous due to the identical kind of idea the place it simply dragged the entire market cap weight up. Are there another durations you suppose that this type of feels a bit like or related so far as we have a look at the playbook on what might transpire?
Felix:
The NIFTY 50s had been one, the TMT shares in 2000 had been one other one, after which the conglomerates within the late 60s had been one other one. The conglomerates like Litton Industries, Teledyne and all these conglomerates had been then in favor and so they acquired a really excessive a number of due to that and the cash was flowing into them and finally a lot of the shares with a couple of exceptions declined badly thereafter and a few even disappeared.
Meb:
One of many large subjects for the previous couple years, actually right here but in addition actually in different nations like Argentina has been inflation. And inflation actually spiked to fairly worrisome ranges and it seems like now in the US’ most really feel prefer it’s conquered and is finished with. How do you kind of have a look at this twin subject, and you may take this the place you are feeling applicable, of each inflation and bonds? I’ve seen you discuss quite a bit about optimism and the bond mounted revenue world is fairly excessive proper now. What’s your ideas on that common space of mounted revenue and inflation?
Felix:
Nicely, to start with, the patron worth index has by no means gone down. It has all the time gone up. And inflation is the speed of change of the patron worth index. They usually continually change the composition of the patron worth index to make it look decrease than inflation actually is or the price of residing actually is. Within the 70s, they took vitality out and meals out as a result of they mentioned, “We can not management it,” as if folks wouldn’t drive automobiles and wouldn’t eat. It’s nonsense, after all.
And just lately they took out healthcare insurance coverage premiums and changed it with healthcare insurance coverage firm’s income as a result of the one went down and the opposite went up. So I believe there are a variety of foolish video games being performed and in case you take the basket of 1990, you might be at 9 or 10 % inflation nowadays within the US. And I come to the US for 50 years and in all these 50 years eating places have all the time been cheaper than in Switzerland aside from this 12 months.
This 12 months is the primary time in nearly 50 years that the US was dearer than Switzerland. And that tells you that the US has an inflation downside. And naturally the speed of change goes down and the bottom impact helps and commodities are serving to, oil helps and we get perhaps right down to 2% or one thing like that subsequent 12 months, however the cycle behaves very a lot in line with the cycle within the late 60s and 70s and which means it’ll backside out subsequent 12 months after which it goes up.
And if I’m proper concerning the recession subsequent 12 months and so they inject liquidity, that may make commodities go up and also you compound that by the rivalry between the BRICS and the G7 and the BRICS management three quarters of the commodities of the world and they’ll make it most value than ever. And the underinvestment we’ve got seen in recent times will make commodities rise very, very dramatically for my part.
So you’ll have most likely an oil worth in 26 of 150, 200 {dollars}. That offers you a CPI of greater than 10%. So I believe we may have one other inflation cycle forward of us and I believe within the subsequent inflation cycle the bond markets will probably be crushed much more badly than within the final one. And within the final one was fairly heavy.
I imply, a 20-year treasury ETF went down 50% from 2020 to 23. And I believe subsequent time it’s acquired to be worse as a result of if you go the second time over 10%, I don’t imagine that the 10-year treasuries will keep at 5. After which in case you go to eight or one thing like that, then after all the query is can our system deal with that? And I believe it can not. We may have a disaster. We may have most likely one of the extreme recession disaster within the later 20s. And that’s what we most likely must make the structural modifications in our authorities’s expenditures and revenue assertion. That may solely be made throughout a disaster.
You can’t reduce entitlements and you can not elevate taxes dramatically if you’re in a pleasing circumstance, if the whole lot goes regular. However if you’re in a painful disaster that hurts everybody and the world is wanting very grim, then I believe you are able to do it. Then the politicians can promote it to their constituencies. All of us must sacrifice one thing and must do it for the good thing about our nation. So that is what I see forward.
Meb:
You allude to commodities, which is a subject that I believe is tough for lots of buyers. Nicely, there’s one specifically that’s nudging at all-time highs proper now and that’s after all the shiny steel that generates most likely extra diverse opinions than nearly something on the market aside from my Aussie and Canadian mates, they’re on board.
However you’ve talked about gold up to now. Most Individuals, I really feel like that take heed to the present, don’t personal a lot of their portfolios. My Chinese language and Indian mates, it’s a special story. What are you fascinated with the shiny steel, do you suppose it’s fascinating, not fascinating, is hitting all-time highs right here?
Felix:
Gold is cash and also you see that bodily gold is transferring from the West to the worldwide South, China, Russia, different BRICS nations are shopping for it and the West is promoting it. And I believe they’ve began historical past as a result of if you go right into a disaster, gold is cash if you want it as a result of your individual debased fiat cash, perhaps no one desires at the moment, however gold is all the time accepted. And gold is unstable, goes up and down.
It displays the debasement of the fiat currencies. Gold they are saying is all the time price about an costly swimsuit. So there are folks shopping for fits for 2000, 3000 {dollars} and that’s most likely the worth vary. Gold is on an eight-year cycle. If you return, it’s a fairly common eight 12 months cycle and the cycle low, the theoretical cycle low is due subsequent summer season in summer season of 24. And that goes along with my expectation of a recession and an enormous change in financial coverage.
So I believe from that theoretical cycle low, which can most likely be a better worth than now, we are going to see an acceleration on the upside for about 4 years. So I’m fairly constructive on gold. I’ve just lately seen a survey amongst American buyers, 71% of these polled confirmed they owned between zero and one % of their property. So gold shouldn’t be extensively owned and I believe will probably be extra extensively owned as costs go up. Most individuals purchase probably the most on the high and never on the backside.
Meb:
I laughingly joined Costco as a result of I used to be attempting, I don’t know if it was a promotion, they’re attempting to get press or they’re really attempting to do it the place they had been promoting gold bars at Costco and so they instantly offered out after all. So I’m going to look ahead into the subsequent couple of years when Costco turns into the most important distributor of gold bars on the planet.
I realized an excellent reality this 12 months that Costco places out, it’s sells one thing like half of the world’s cashews. Which I believe is the worst of all of the nuts, listeners, however folks like them. So I don’t know what, perhaps Costco places some magic seasoning mud on these. So tied together with this subject of gold, inflation, you talked about the US being cheaper than Switzerland.
So my takeaway from all that is I must get my passport and go journey a bit bit whereas I acquired the time and the possibility on the, let’s discuss concerning the greenback and international currencies. Is it a variety of the Quants will say that buying energy parity US greenback is pricey. Is that your view? What do you concentrate on the worldwide FX market, the place there’s alternative the place we must always keep away from?
Felix:
I believe the greenback has topped final September I believe it was, and is now in its second medium time period decline. And that medium time period decline, I count on to finish generally within the first quarter, most likely along with when the inventory market tops out. And from then I count on a restoration. I have no idea how lengthy it’ll will final, however in a non-safe world, if you evaluate the attractiveness of currencies and locations and jurisdictions, the US nonetheless comes out very excessive on the highest.
So I wouldn’t put, as an American, I wouldn’t put my cash into China or Russia or Argentina or no matter since you can not belief these jurisdictions. They’ll merely make a brand new legislation in opposition to foreigners and also you lose the whole lot, as occurred in Russia. And due to this fact, I believe capitalists from all around the world are nonetheless searching for a protected haven and switch to the US.
So the issue for the greenback will then come and arrive when the US central financial institution begins to ease financial coverage. The system is such as a result of the greenback continues to be the dominating forex on this complete forex system. It’s dollar-based. When the central financial institution sees the greenback declines as a result of it creates extra {dollars} than all of different currencies.
And if the central banks tighten, the greenback goes up as a result of it tightens, the most important pond tightens greater than all of the others little ponds. And after they start to ease subsequent 12 months, then I believe in some unspecified time in the future from summer season on or so, the greenback might have an even bigger downside and should decline fairly sharply. You misunderstood me, I mentioned the US is dearer than Switzerland, not the opposite method round.
Meb:
Yeah. Yeah, US costly, so we acquired to journey.
Felix:
Yeah.
Meb:
Proper. Proper. Proper. Proper.
Felix:
Yeah. Yeah. That’s proper. Yeah, it’s a must to journey. It’s a must to journey.
Meb:
My listeners are bored with listening to about me speaking about snowboarding in Japan the place the yen might be a few of the lowest ranges it’s been in a very long time. So I’m undoubtedly enthusiastic about heading again to Japan. In order we speak about all these totally different areas, what’s an space as we speak about avoiding the massive Magazine Seven, are there pockets of the US or specific nations elsewhere that you just’re involved in? It could possibly be types like worth development, it could possibly be sectors, it could possibly be nations? Something that you just’re say, “Okay, this seems to be quite a bit higher different than simply avoiding the massive dudes.”
Felix:
I believe we’re nearly altering from development to worth. We’re within the late stage of this pull cycle from final 12 months’s low final fall. It’s the third up leg and that up leg when it ends will almost definitely result in a bear cycle. And as I defined, I believe the expansion shares because of the Magnificent Seven will endure greater than the under-owned, than the under-owned shares that are worth shares and are cyclical shares, et cetera.
They’re cheaply priced. Lots of the cyclicals and worth shares are usually not costly. They’re cheaply priced, they’re under-owned and that’s what I wish to purchase within the subsequent decline. Proper now we’ve got one sector going in opposition to the market that’s vitality. Vitality will probably be a gorgeous sector going ahead, however it’s now correcting as a result of the worth of oil is discounting a world recession and it’s coming down due to that.
It’s really telling us a really totally different story from the inventory markets. The inventory markets are telling us the whole lot is rosy whereas the commodity markets and oil specifically is telling us it’s not so superb, it’s not so good on the market. So, I believe when oil goes right down to let’s say 60 or beneath 60 in a couple of months’ time, then I believe it’s a gorgeous place to purchase vitality producers, oil producers and fuel producers in good jurisdictions, in protected jurisdictions.
So North America can be an excellent place. Shares that produce in North America I believe would be the front-runners. They’re engaging. I additionally suppose that the commodity associated shares, producers of copper and aluminum and people issues will probably be engaging shares within the subsequent cycle, however it’s too early to purchase. They can even go down with the market however to not the identical diploma as the expansion shares.
And often when you have got a change in management, it’s often throughout a down cycle, throughout a downdraft the place these sectors that decline lower than others, these are those which can be offered out and also you wouldn’t have the promoting strain. Whereas these which can be over-owned, they’re declining greater than others.
You wish to purchase on the backside those which can be under-owned and don’t decline as a lot. So it’s a must to research relative efficiency through the decline. And I believe you will see many engaging firms among the many industrials and the cyclicals commodity associated additionally, vitality that we’ll be verifying for the subsequent up-cycle.
Meb:
The late Byron Wien all the time used to have his 10 surprises. If we sit down a 12 months from now and Felix says, “Okay, that is wanting again on it, most likely the most important shock of 2024 or so in a different way, what do you suppose goes to be the most important shock of the 12 months?” Something in that class of what you suppose is likely to be the massive shock? Or we touched on it already.
Felix:
The large shock will probably be that the yen would be the strongest forex.
Meb:
Oh man, I higher pay for my journey forward of time.
Felix:
Completely.
Meb:
I must pay my bills. Let’s go forward and e-book these.
Felix:
Completely. It’s a must to perceive that the Japanese didn’t tighten coverage and so they had been the one ones that didn’t tighten and all of the others have tightened. When all of the others start to ease, the Japanese won’t ease as a result of they’ve been straightforward all the best way and due to this fact their forex has declined. The Japanese yen might be undervalued on a buying energy parity by 40% or so, and it has been used as the most important funding forex.
When it’s a must to finance a undertaking, you all the time go to the currencies which can be the most affordable to fund and the weakest, low-cost and weak. Rates of interest had been low, the forex was weak, that was the best forex. What which means is that you’ve an enormous [inaudible 00:32:41] place on the market from these financings.
And when the pattern modifications, and it most likely has already modified, when that pattern modifications, it goes very quick. I keep in mind the final time we had such a scenario was within the late 90s, 1998. I used to be in that commerce in 1998. In 97 the Asian disaster began and due to that the yen was very weak, a really weak forex, and the greenback was a really sturdy forex. And greenback yen was at 148 and three weeks later, in three weeks it went from 148 to 108.
Meb:
My goodness.
Felix:
It was a dramatic commerce and it was considered one of my higher trades. I used a variety of choices and I had considered one of my excellent years in these in 1998. Yeah.
Meb:
You may have fairly a couple of non-consensus views. I do a Twitter thread the place I speak about what view do I maintain that’s 75% of my investing skilled friends. So if we sit down at a desk in Switzerland or Florida for espresso or lunch and Felix says one thing, the overwhelming majority of the desk would shake their heads and say, “He’s loopy.”
What’s a view? And this could possibly be a framework, it doesn’t must be a present opinion, however it could possibly be a present opinion, however what’s one thing that you’d say or imagine that a lot of the desk wouldn’t agree with? So one thing that’s non-consensus that you just imagine that almost all of your skilled friends, not retail, however skilled friends might not agree with you on.
Felix:
5 years in the past I began to put in writing about coming wars and everyone was shaking their heads and so they laughed at me really. And now we’ve got wars and I believe the wars will intensify, they are going to develop larger. We may have extra wars and we run the danger of a conflict the place the massive guys get entangled. I wouldn’t say that Chinese language tanks will roll by means of the US or so, however I believe it could possibly be a conflict the place we attempt to sabotage their electrical grid and so they ours and the web and issues like that.
And this may do a variety of harm finally to our economies. And I believe this isn’t taken into consideration after I take heed to Wall Road, the mainstream guys. They go and so they have their playbook, they’ve their formulation, and I believe these formulation within the subsequent few years you’ll be able to throw out of the window. It doesn’t work that method.
Meb:
Is there something typically that type of on the time led you to that perception? Was it simply rhetoric from numerous teams? Was it long-term traits so far as societal type of macro points?
Felix:
It’s the fundamental concept of the [inaudible 00:35:40] entice. That is when you have got a scenario the place you have got a hegemon that controls the whole lot on the planet or in a area and hastily new energy rises comes up and challenges the man, then you have got a battle. And that battle scenario we’ve got seen within the final 500 years, 16 occasions. 12 occasions, it led to direct conflict of the 2 rivals and thrice it led to deputy wars and just one time it labored with out wars.
And that was the change from the Mom of Nice Britain to the [inaudible 00:36:20] of the US. And I believe we’re in such a scenario once more. And when Trump began to attempt to push China on commerce, it was clear on the [inaudible 00:36:35] the battle can be inescapable, the battle would come. It all the time begins with straight conflicts after which it turns into finally militarily.
And I believe we’re transferring in direction of such a scenario. The scenario in Israel is harmful as a result of if Israel, after the Gaza operation tries to show in opposition to Hezbollah. Hezbollah is in Syria, and Syria and Russia have a army settlement. Syria is backed by Iran, as is Hezbollah. It may pull these guys in and it’ll pull within the US on the opposite aspect.
And the Chinese language are the present energy dealer within the Center East. It’s not the US anymore. And naturally they might again the BRICS aspect. It’s a really harmful scenario. I’ve just lately heard that it’s the primary time that the Israeli commando should all the time first discuss to the US earlier than they begin one thing as a result of the US is realizing how harmful the [inaudible 00:37:45] is and will turn into. So that’s one thing I’m very fearful about.
Meb:
As you look again in your profession, that is going to be a tricky one, you talked about the yen already, what has been your most memorable funding? It could possibly be good, it could possibly be dangerous, it could possibly be in between, however simply the one which seared into your mind.
Felix:
Essentially the most memorable funding was a nasty funding. That all the time… The nice investments you speak about, however the dangerous investments you always remember.
Meb:
They follow you.
Felix:
My worst funding was when silver peaked at 50 and I noticed that peak. I offered out my gold and silver and I assumed it might go right down to 36 after which bounce to 45 or so. So at 36 I purchased silver, and as I purchased, it simply began to go down, down, down, down, down. And I offered out that 18. I misplaced 50% on that commerce and I used to be fully confused. I used to be 30 years outdated at the moment and it harm. I needed to flip the display off for a couple of days. I couldn’t watch it anymore.
After which I went again to the drafting board and did my homework and I figured it might decline to 12 backside within the 12, 10 space after which bounced again to 24. So I waited and about six months later I purchased thrice as a lot between 10 and 12 after which it rallied to 24 the place I offered. So I got here out properly on the finish, however oh, that was horrible and it harm badly and I always remember that and it taught me the lesson by no means attempt to be tremendous good. Sensible alone is sweet sufficient.
Meb:
Yeah. Silver, we didn’t point out but at the moment, however I used to be attempting to drag up a chart to see the place we’re sitting at the moment as gold is pulling it up. Proper round 20, 24, 25. So.
Felix:
Yeah. Yeah.
Meb:
Not all time highs. So perhaps we acquired a bit catch-up to be doing.
Felix:
I believe silver will probably be fascinating .and significantly from subsequent 12 months on, I believe silver on the best way up, as soon as the valuable steel cycle begins to achieve traction, then I believe silver will outperform gold on the best way up. It’s an industrial steel. It’s not the financial steel. However nonetheless, I believe it’ll break 50 and go to new highs.
Meb:
Nicely, you heard it right here. Felix, if folks wish to comply with your writing, your analysis, your consulting, the place do they go? What’s one of the best place to seek out extra details about you and what you’re as much as?
Felix:
You go to www.felixzulauf.com and you may write to information@felixzulauf.com and there you discover us.
Meb:
Felix, it’s been a blessing and a lot enjoyable. Thanks a lot for becoming a member of us at the moment and comfortable holidays to you and all of yours.
Felix:
Blissful holidays to you too. And thanks very a lot for having me. It’s been an honor. Thanks, Meb
Meb:
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